Ireland may well be heading for EU commissioner job disappointment

One by one, the candidates put forward to make up the next team of European Union commissioners have been meeting Ursula von der Leyen over the past fortnight. Sitting across from the European Commission president on couches in her office on the 13th floor of the Berlaymont building, prospective commissioners have tried to get a read on what the German politician has in mind for them.
It is up to each EU country to nominate who they want to be their next commissioner, but what portfolio they get is the choice of the commission president. Von der Leyen has been keeping her cards very close to her chest, not giving away much indication about who she intends to give what.
The commissioners are effectively her team of ministers running the commission, which is the increasingly powerful executive arm of the EU. Portfolios range from heavy-hitting briefs covering issues like trade and the economy, to less weighty jobs such as commissioner for transport, development aid, or equality.
Apart from von der Leyen, who counts as Germany’s commissioner, one other role has already been decided. When picking the next commission president, the 27 national leaders also choose who they want to be the EU’s high representative on foreign affairs.
In June, the leaders settled on Kaja Kallas, former Estonian prime minister, to replace Josep Borrell in this role.
Ireland has nominated former minister for finance Michael McGrath to take over from Mairead McGuinness as its EU commissioner. The Government is hoping to secure a finance-related portfolio, but so are about half of the other capitals. The last of the nominations came in at the start of this week, with von der Leyen expected to announce who is getting what job early next week.
So who is McGrath up against?
Six countries have opted for their existing commissioners to return for another stint. This is usually guaranteed to put them in a good spot to get a more important role. When Ireland stuck with Phil Hogan for another term after he was agriculture commissioner, he was bumped up to the coveted trade portfolio.
Those returning this time around include France’s Thierry Breton, someone who was prone to solo runs in the last term but who will still no doubt be given one of the most powerful jobs. Two commission veterans, Maroš Šefčovič from Slovakia and Latvia’s Valdis Dombrovskis, are also expected to get senior roles.
Despite the new right-wing government in the Netherlands including Geert Wilders’s far-right party, the Dutch also stuck with their incumbent, Wopke Hoekstra, who is angling for a finance-related portfolio and tipped to be the next trade commissioner.
Most of those who were proposed as first-time commissioners were previously government ministers, and a handful are MEPs. Just eight countries nominated women, meaning von der Leyen will not be able to put together a gender-balanced team of commissioners as she had hoped.
Spain picked Teresa Ribera, Madrid’s minister for ecological transition, who is seeking a role in driving climate reforms in Europe. Poland, which wants the portfolio responsible for the EU budget, nominated Piotr Serafin, Warsaw’s current ambassador to the EU and a close ally of prime minister Donald Tusk.
The Greek government has its eye on the commissioner role that oversees EU funding to help develop poorer regions in the bloc. Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni has nominated Raffaele Fitto, her Europe minister, who is in line for a big economic job. For the first time, there will be a commissioner for defence, with several countries in eastern and central Europe interested, given their proximity to Russia.
The commissioner nominations have been a headache for some, due to domestic political instability. Unsuccessful government formation talks in Belgium and Bulgaria left a political vacuum which meant they were among the last to send in their picks.
Ireland, by contrast, was one of the first to nominate its next commissioner, coming out of the traps back in June. The Government needed to move early to give new Minister for Finance Jack Chambers time to bed in before the budget in October, but the casualty of that necessity may be McGrath’s chances of landing a decent job.
Ireland announced its selection before von der Leyen had even made it through a European Parliament vote confirming her as president for a second term — a vote in which McGrath’s four Fianna Fáil colleagues in the parliament sided against the German politician.
While it seems other national capitals had discussions with von der Leyen before formally nominating their candidates, the Government did not consult her before naming McGrath. She was also said to be irked by Taoiseach Simon Harris’s refusal to name two candidates, one male, one female, as she had requested so she could build a gender-balanced team.
Regardless of how well McGrath came across in his sit-down with his new boss last week, the mood music coming from the Berlaymont suggests Ireland is possibly being lined up for a minor portfolio that will be viewed as a punishment.